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Вот так формируется чашка с ручкой (D)黄金期货 与现货比较
Ручка - это коррекция первой структуры. Стены чашки - два предыдущих разнонаправленных 黄金期货 与现货比较 импульса.
При наличии дивера подбираем на перелое минимума с которого пошли показывать дивер. В идеале - внутри облака.
Если что то пойдет не так - лучше воздержаться.
P.S.
Переделки системы продолжаются. Теперь нечто среднее между Profitunity и EWO на основе Ichimoku и MACD (AO/ AC )
Нижний, быстрый MACD с гистограммой это AO + АC Билла Вильямса в одном окне.
Верхний, медленный MACD по таймингам Ichimoku и - на порядок старше нижней. Гистограмма 黄金期货 与现货比较 практически повторяет AO. Естественно все на SMA по медиане.
Добавлен DC(55) с центральной линией - теперь есть полноценный сигнал трех линий/заполнения фрактала при переходе Tenkan и Kijun из одной части канала в другую + пробой границы самого канала (система "Черепах").
Gold Surprises as Dollar Gets Monkey-Hammered Lower
In "Gold Leaps Higher as Worries Mount," I briefly pointed out how those very same institutions that championed quantitative easing policies implemented by the Federal Reserve 黄金期货 与现货比较 are now coming out to proclaim quantitative easing added no substantial benefit 黄金期货 与现货比较 to the real economy.
Gold was pushed lower on the assumption that central banking policy would all pan out and that the U.S. would finally achieve escape velocity; but the exact opposite is occurring. Despite the near 12 to 16 months of absolutely horrendous, even recessionary data, market participants believed that if the Fed began to tighten monetary policy then the economy must be alright.
Central bankers,misguided by classroom academics 黄金期货 与现货比较 and abhorrent to real world economic dynamics, believe that if you tinker 黄金期货 与现货比较 with interest rates that somehow inflation will magically begin to rise. Not so because it is real, meaningful growth that produces inflation ; and it is more evident now that the these policies do not produce meaningful growth.
I mapped out the dollar's downward trajectory, which was largely based 黄金期货 与现货比较 黄金期货 与现货比较 黄金期货 与现货比较 on the floundering economy and the inability for the Fed to take 黄金期货 与现货比较 action that will pop asset inflation . I still believe this is based on the above factors and that the dollar will likely gather strength as the US slips into deflation.
Traders and CNBC pundits think that if deflation takes hold then gold will surely decline into the abyss. And 黄金期货 与现货比较 just like their "lower gas prices equal booming consumer spending" myth, gold falling off a cliff during deflation is just as preposterous.
Gold is unique in that if can act like an insurance policy against 黄金期货 与现货比较 both sides of tail risk ( inflation and deflation). It is well-known that gold had a massive bull run when stagflation took hold of the US during the 1970s. Inflation ran amok.
However, nobody mentions that gold tripled, 黄金期货 与现货比较 in inflation-adjusted dollar terms, during the early 1930s (the Great Depression) prior to President Roosevelt outlawing the private ownership of gold .
As I wrote last April:
"There is an assumption that the dollar and gold’s performance is strictly inverse of one another, but that is not so. The 黄金期货 与现货比较 WGC (World Gold Council) indicates that between early 2014 and March 20, 2015, the dollar has gained over 20 percent while gold only fell 黄金期货 与现货比较 1.2 percent.
Historically, gold prices more than double on a weak dollar than it falls on a stronger dollar. Thus, a stronger dollar is not indicative of massive gold depreciation.
When the dollar declines, gold has appreciated 14.9 percent. Yet, when the dollar strengthens, gold has only fallen by 6.5 percent, according to the WGC . "
If you look at this chart, you will notice one thing: gold sure looks to trend with the SPX . There is an argument that this due to simple asset inflation .
Notice the massive divergence began when gold began to top in 2011. The divergence is what I call the "perception" gap.
I expect that divergence to close. It's no secret that I 黄金期货 与现货比较 黄金期货 与现货比较 was right about the volatility of 2015, along with other key macro 黄金期货 与现货比较 trends. I believe by the end of 2016 and 2017 is when the real fireworks begin.
Gold's recent move has been huge, and, of course, there will be profit taking. But those who follow me know that the underlying fundamentals for gold has been strengthening for some 黄金期货 与现货比较 time.
(Note: the gold chart is the same I used in the 黄金期货 与现货比较 above mentioned gold idea, but the minor uptrend (along with new resistance) were added).
Please follow me @lemieux_26 and check out my other ideas, which have links to previous writings.
Gold Due for its next cycle.
I believe that Gold is positioned for its next cycle upwards into 黄金期货 与现货比较 the 1300s. DXY is starting to show weakness due to trade war tensions between China and US. Next comes inflationary pressure due to increase prices of raw materials and Chinese products which may be curbed by the 黄金期货 与现货比较 FED increasing interest rates in the coming months. Even then, Gold has 黄金期货 与现货比较 been accumulating between the 1240 and 1260 region.
Things to monitor:
1) 黄金期货 与现货比较 CFTC Commitment of Traders net bullish positions
2) A convincing close of the day above 1260 in gold .
3) Potential escalation of US-China trade tension and inflation .
4) Potential decoupling between DXY and Gold in the coming 黄金期货 与现货比较 weeks. i.e. Gold spike while DXY remains neutral.
Entry at 1253, 黄金期货 与现货比较 medium term trade with targets at 1270 and 1300.
评论: Yesterday's move upwards had a strong rejection due to spike in DXY, which suggests gold isn't quite ready to move up. Gold did not close above 1260 and formed a shooting star which signalled a short term sell; however, this does not bother me much as I am in this for the long haul.
Note: Staggering your trades would help a lot for these types of longer term trades, I wouldn't fully commit to a bullish position just yet as DXY looks like it 黄金期货 与现货比较 could rally to 95 anytime as fed hinted there could be 2 黄金期货 与现货比较 upcoming interest rate hikes.
评论: Today's move was a good sign for Gold as it advanced along with DXY (even though they are supposed to move in opp directions at this stage). I wouldn't go so far as to say gold and DXY are decoupling because the 黄金期货 与现货比较 market is too convoluted at this point with so much going on the past week.
Looks like this is gonna need lots of patience. I expect to see bullish CFTC speculative net positions in Friday's report.